Can you two please sort things out? is likely the text that China's neighbors, both close by and far away, would have sent to Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in the previous 48 hours.
Of course, everyone on earth was watching US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's trip to Beijing over the weekend, but perhaps no one more so than the nations that would be directly affected by any US-China conflict.
The tactical stretch of US allies in the Pacific, from Japan and South Korea in the north, through the Philippines, all the way to Australia in the south, probably breathed a collective sigh of relief for 35 minutes on Monday when Mr. Blinken became the highest-ranking US diplomat to meet Mr. Xi since 2018. The economies of Southeast Asia, located on vital global supply routes, and the small island nations of the Pacific, sandwiched between Chinese and American overtures, would have felt the same sense of security.
According to John Delury, a professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, "everyone is learning to live with the China-US rivalry, but no one wants to choose between them.". "It will be somewhat reassuring to see these two nations acting like adults. " .
It appeared that both sides were trying to convey that message. Over the course of two days, Mr. Blinken met Wang Yi and Qin Gang, two of China's top diplomats, with the latter spending hours with him and hosting a "working dinner" before the two of them finally sat down with Mr. Xi in the Great Hall of The People.
At the conclusion, Mr. Xi praised the "progress" in the negotiations and mentioned "agreements on specific issues," without specifying what those were. When he returned to Washington, DC, Mr. Biden praised Mr. Blinken for doing "a hell of a job.". The 61-year-old secretary of state, however, who is a consummate statesman, told reporters that he had "clear-eyed" views on China. However, he also acknowledged that there were "many issues on which we profoundly, even vehemently -- disagree." He welcomed the resumption of high-level communication and stated that the Chinese agreed with the Americans that relations must stabilize.
However, rather than being met with disappointment, the lackluster readouts, which had many qualifiers and no breakthroughs, were met with hope. Expectations were that low.
The Americans arrived in the region hoping to prevent a conflict between Washington and Beijing, whose tense relationship has alarmed the neighborhood.
More than 90% of respondents in South Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, according to a recent survey by the Eurasia Group Foundation, are "worried" about a conflict between the two superpowers. The most important issue facing their nation, according to nearly half of those surveyed, is regional unrest.
According to Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific Program, "the world does not want to see this relationship spiral out of control.". "There has been concern in the region and beyond that the US and China have not been speaking; nations want to know that if an accident were to occur, the two sides could prevent an escalation. ".
Playground politics are no longer relevant. Even worries about the supply of semiconductors and international trade are no longer relevant. The struggle for influence has escalated, putting the region's nations under pressure to make difficult decisions about their own security.
Japan and South Korea have been allies of the United States for many years, but old grudges have kept them apart. A necessary thaw has now occurred as they confront the same escalating threats in the wake of Beijing's increasing assertiveness and North Korea's record-breaking missile launches.
Similar urgency has led the Philippines to grant the US access to more military bases. Tokyo is reportedly also preparing military assistance for Manila; this development could mark the return of the Japanese to Philippine territory for the first time since World War Two.
The Pacific Islands, where both China and the US are vying for a strategic foothold, are affected. After Beijing did the same with the Solomon Islands, Washington signed a new security agreement with Papua New Guinea in May.
A military hotline between Beijing and the Pentagon is what many of these nations would like to see resumed the most. Mr. Blinken pushed for this in his meetings, but it appears that the Chinese were not on board. The possibility of a military confrontation between the two over the autonomous island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own, is particularly unsettling to the region.
The risk of a miscalculation is higher than ever due to the increased military presence in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, especially as the US and China are flying and swimming relatively close together.
"We require dependable channels of communication. We must lessen the possibility of a military mishap, according to Ms. Glaser.
The meeting is only a beginning, and an uncertain one at that, for the Asia-Pacific nations. However, they will take any amount of progress for the time being. even if all that entails is the ability to breathe.
Although nothing is guaranteed, this visit at least demonstrates that the US and China are working to reduce tensions and maintain communication, which is positive in this region of the world, according to Mr. Delury.
But the toughest obstacle is still in front of us. Taiwan is at the "core" of Beijing's interests, the Chinese capital has made that clear. So the question is, what will happen next between the two nuclear powers and the two largest economies in the world?
Washington's issue is that time is running out as a new election approaches. Republican opponents of President Biden have charged him with being lenient toward China. He might be tempted to work against Mr. Xi rather than with him.
Ms. Glaser asserts that "it has to be now" if the relationship is to be stabilized.
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